W
Will the UK face the "longest recession in G7"?
82%
Manifold
82%
economicsManifold14 traders
W
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
43%
Manifold
43%
economicsManifold16 traders
W
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
42%
Manifold
42%
economicsManifold47 traders
W
Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?
21%
Manifold
21%
economicsManifold11 traders
W
Will US unemployment be 15% or more before 2030?
15%
Manifold
15%
economicsManifold52 traders
W
Will the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?
30%
Manifold
30%
economicsManifold22 traders
Fed rate hike in 2026?
24%
Manifold
24%
economicsManifold21 traders
W
Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?
31%
Manifold
31%
economicsManifold17 traders
U
US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
48%
Manifold
48%
economicsManifold17 traders
W
Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?
36%
Manifold
36%
economicsManifold102 traders
W
Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 20 years?
63%
Manifold
63%
economicsManifold36 traders
W
Will the World's GDP double in 10 years?
44%
Manifold
44%
economicsManifold34 traders
W
Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?
80%
Manifold
80%
economicsManifold31 traders
W
World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)
64%
Manifold
64%
economicsManifold31 traders
W
Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?
42%
Manifold
42%
economicsManifold25 traders
W
Will US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
23%
Manifold
23%
economicsManifold12 traders