OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,934
Markets
Data refreshed 2 hr ago
125 questions
Consensus 2+
[
[ACX 2026] Will GTA VI be released during 2026?
74%
Manifold
74%
entertainmentManifold28 traders
S
SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash
64%
Manifold
64%
entertainmentManifold29 traders
I
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
58%
Manifold
58%
entertainmentManifold64 traders
W
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2028?
45%
Manifold
45%
entertainmentManifold61 traders
G
GTA 6 released before GPT 6?
61%
Manifold
61%
entertainmentManifold26 traders
W
Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.
74%
Manifold
74%
entertainmentManifold51 traders
W
Will an adult movie be made in space and released by mid 2034?
40%
Manifold
40%
entertainmentManifold48 traders
I
In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
69%
Manifold
69%
entertainmentManifold47 traders
W
Will the Netflix One Piece live action adaptation be cancelled before a third season?
3%
Manifold
3%
entertainmentManifold46 traders
W
Will a video game be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2050?
75%
Manifold
75%
entertainmentManifold36 traders
B
By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?
73%
Manifold
73%
entertainmentManifold40 traders
H
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2030?
23%
Manifold
23%
entertainmentManifold44 traders
G
GTA VI released in 2026?
83%
Manifold
83%
entertainmentManifold42 traders
W
Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?
16%
Manifold
16%
entertainmentManifold37 traders
G
GTA VI will have a mission involving the launch of a spaceship (probably belonging to a satirical billionaire)
71%
Manifold
71%
entertainmentManifold27 traders
B
By mid-2027, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
15%
Manifold
15%
entertainmentManifold63 traders
When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users? — 2026
21%
Manifold
21%
entertainmentManifold37 traders
When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users? — 2028
41%
Manifold
41%
entertainmentManifold37 traders
When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users? — 2029
49%
Manifold
49%
entertainmentManifold37 traders
When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users? — 2030
51%
Manifold
51%
entertainmentManifold37 traders
4567
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