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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,266
Markets
Data refreshed 2 hr ago
177 questions
Consensus 2+
I
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
58%
Manifold
58%
entertainmentManifold64 traders
B
By mid-2027, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
15%
Manifold
15%
entertainmentManifold63 traders
W
Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2028?
45%
Manifold
45%
entertainmentManifold61 traders
[
[ACX 2026] Will GTA VI be released during 2026?
74%
Manifold
74%
entertainmentManifold28 traders
W
Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.
74%
Manifold
74%
entertainmentManifold51 traders
W
Will the Netflix One Piece live action adaptation be cancelled before a third season?
3%
Manifold
3%
entertainmentManifold46 traders
W
Will a chatbot read sheet music before 2027?
42%
Manifold
42%
entertainmentManifold44 traders
B
By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?
73%
Manifold
73%
entertainmentManifold40 traders
H
High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2030?
23%
Manifold
23%
entertainmentManifold44 traders
G
GTA VI released in 2026?
83%
Manifold
83%
entertainmentManifold42 traders
W
Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?
16%
Manifold
16%
entertainmentManifold37 traders
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