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Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,934
Markets
Data refreshed 5 hr ago
151 questions
Consensus 2+
G
Gta 6 man strip clubs
90%
Manifold
90%
entertainmentManifold13 traders
I
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
71%
Manifold
71%
entertainmentManifold54 traders
I
In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?
15%
Manifold
15%
entertainmentManifold46 traders
W
Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?
39%
Manifold
39%
entertainmentManifold53 traders
W
Will GTA 6 cost 79$ or more on launch?
86%
Manifold
86%
entertainmentManifold38 traders
B
By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
32%
Manifold
32%
entertainmentManifold128 traders
W
Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
13%
Manifold
13%
entertainmentManifold35 traders
←678
Odds Raven

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