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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
67,809
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 26 min ago
82 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-OutcomeConsensus 2+
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PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of April 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 6900
38%
Manifold
38%
financeManifold16 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of April 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 7100
15%
Manifold
15%
financeManifold16 traders
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 11,000
1%
Manifold
1%
financeManifold17 traders
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 12,000
1%
Manifold
1%
financeManifold17 traders
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 13,000
1%
Manifold
1%
financeManifold17 traders
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 14,000
1%
Manifold
1%
financeManifold17 traders
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 15,000
1%
Manifold
1%
financeManifold17 traders
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 8,000
9%
Manifold
9%
financeManifold17 traders
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 9,000
3%
Manifold
3%
financeManifold17 traders
W
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2026? — 10,000
1%
Manifold
1%
financeManifold17 traders
W
Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
2%
Manifold
2%
financeManifold46 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >21.5 at end of 2026/05
45%
Manifold
45%
financeManifold41 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >22.5 at end of 2026/05
41%
Manifold
41%
financeManifold41 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >23.5 at end of 2026/05
32%
Manifold
32%
financeManifold41 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of April 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 6500
84%
Manifold
84%
financeManifold16 traders
W
Will Nvidia be permitted to sell its Blackwell chips (B30A, B300, etc.) directly to China, before May 2026?
4%
Manifold
4%
financeManifold23 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >20.5 at end of 2026/04
59%
Manifold
59%
financeManifold41 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >21.5 at end of 2026/04
50%
Manifold
50%
financeManifold41 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >22.5 at end of 2026/04
38%
Manifold
38%
financeManifold41 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >23.5 at end of 2026/04
23%
Manifold
23%
financeManifold41 traders
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