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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,266
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 1 hr ago
104 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-OutcomeConsensus 2+
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PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 8500
5%
Manifold
5%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 9000
2%
Manifold
2%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 6000
79%
Manifold
79%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 8000
9%
Manifold
9%
financeManifold27 traders
W
What prices will the S&P 500 hit before it hits 6,000 again? — 9,000
20%
Manifold
20%
financeManifold27 traders
D
Destiny community stock [permanent]
55%
Manifold
55%
financeManifold31 traders
W
Will TSLA a reach a 6 trillion dollar market cap before 2031?
19%
Manifold
19%
financeManifold29 traders
W
What prices will the S&P 500 hit before it hits 6,000 again? — 12,000
12%
Manifold
12%
financeManifold27 traders
W
What prices will the S&P 500 hit before it hits 6,000 again? — 100,000
7%
Manifold
7%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 6500
62%
Manifold
62%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 7000
43%
Manifold
43%
financeManifold27 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 7500
28%
Manifold
28%
financeManifold27 traders
S
S&P 500 up 100% in 2026?
2%
Manifold
2%
financeManifold72 traders
W
Will Starlink IPO by the end 2026?
42%
Manifold
42%
financeManifold25 traders
W
Will Elon Musk's investment in Twitter beat the NASDAQ?
15%
Manifold
15%
financeManifold26 traders
[
[ACX 2026] Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 at the end of 2026?
32%
Manifold
32%
financeManifold22 traders
S
Space datacenter industry generates $100M+ annual revenue by December 31, 2029
27%
Manifold
27%
financeManifold23 traders
2
2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today
16%
Manifold
16%
financeManifold23 traders
Y
Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?
67%
Manifold
67%
financeManifold21 traders
W
Will TSLA outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?
31%
Manifold
31%
financeManifold24 traders
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