Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
98%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
99%
Manifold
99%
Gemini
86%
other3 sources$676K13pp gap
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
22%
↓ 5ppPolymarket
27%
Manifold
18%
sports2 sources$636K9pp gap
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
38%
↑ 0ppManifold
38%
Polymarket
39%
other2 sources$582K1pp gap
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
2%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
1%
Gemini
13%
Manifold
0%
other3 sources$490K12pp gap
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
64%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
72%
Manifold
56%
other2 sources$434K16pp gap
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?
12%
↓ 5ppPolymarket
8%
Manifold
18%
other2 sources$232K11pp gap
James Norton announced as next James Bond?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Manifold
3%
other2 sources$108K1pp gap
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?
0%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
0%
other2 sources$98K1pp gap
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?
6%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
3%
Manifold
11%
other2 sources$98K7pp gap
Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
other2 sources$83K1pp gap
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
0%
other2 sources$75K0pp gap
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
other2 sources$67K0pp gap
Will Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?
4%
↓ 4ppPolymarket
6%
Manifold
2%
other2 sources$50K4pp gap
Will David Bailey be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
59%
↑ 15ppPolymarket
61%
Manifold
38%
Gemini
75%
sports3 sources$50K37pp gap
Theo James announced as next James Bond?
5%
↑ 10ppPolymarket
11%
Manifold
3%
other2 sources$26K9pp gap
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
41%
↓ 20ppPolymarket
39%
Manifold
43%
politics2 sources$14K4pp gap
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
43%
↓ 16ppPolymarket
36%
Manifold
51%
Gemini
42%
sports3 sources$10K16pp gap
Survivor 50 winner? — Cirie Fields
13%
Manifold
9%
Gemini
18%
other2 sources$10K9pp gap
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?
11%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
16%
Manifold
8%
other2 sources$9K9pp gap
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?
42%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
46%
Manifold
38%
other2 sources$7K8pp gap