By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA? — Before 2027-01-01
87%
Manifold
87%
otherManifold24 traders
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA? — Before 2028-01-01
92%
Manifold
92%
otherManifold24 traders
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA? — Before 2030-01-01
96%
Manifold
96%
otherManifold24 traders
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA? — Before 2035-01-01
97%
Manifold
97%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?
38%
Manifold
38%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will a human die in space by 2035?
58%
Manifold
58%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will Starship flight 12 happen before New Glenn flight 3?
8%
Manifold
8%
otherManifold15 traders
W
Will any single terrorist attack in a Western nation kill more than 20,000 people before 2030?
8%
Manifold
8%
otherManifold20 traders
W
Will Poland become a National Superpower by the year 2040?
20%
Manifold
20%
otherManifold15 traders
W
Will Taylor Swift get married before Grand Theft Auto 6 releases?
86%
Manifold
86%
otherManifold19 traders
I
Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?
40%
Manifold
40%
otherManifold24 traders
B
By when will New Glenn flight 3 launch? — 2026-06-30
95%
Manifold
95%
otherManifold23 traders
B
By when will New Glenn flight 3 launch? — 2026-12-31
99%
Manifold
99%
otherManifold23 traders
B
By when will New Glenn flight 3 launch? — 2026-04-30
69%
Manifold
69%
otherManifold23 traders
I
Is Mike Tyson's boxing career officially over?
20%
Manifold
20%
otherManifold20 traders
W
Will India be renamed to Bharat before 2027?
7%
Manifold
7%
otherManifold21 traders
W
Will Czechia adopt the euro before 2030?
23%
Manifold
23%
otherManifold23 traders
W
Will a theory of everything be found this century?
46%
Manifold
46%
otherManifold23 traders
W
Will I improve significantly next year?
30%
Manifold
30%
otherManifold19 traders
When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit? — Before 2026-06-01
1%
Manifold
1%
otherManifold56 traders