Will abiogenesis be demonstrated in the lab? — Before 2034
23%
Manifold
23%
otherManifold45 traders
Will abiogenesis be demonstrated in the lab? — Before 2036
30%
Manifold
30%
otherManifold45 traders
Will abiogenesis be demonstrated in the lab? — Before 2038
36%
Manifold
36%
otherManifold45 traders
Will abiogenesis be demonstrated in the lab? — Before 2040
48%
Manifold
48%
otherManifold45 traders
B
Before 2027, will LLMs be able to play videogames in real time?
21%
Manifold
21%
otherManifold17 traders
H
How many universities I will go to? — 7 - 9
0%
Manifold
0%
otherManifold14 traders
H
How many universities I will go to? — 10 - 12
0%
Manifold
0%
otherManifold14 traders
W
Will any BigLaw firm be "completely wrecked" by AI in the next year?
33%
Manifold
33%
otherManifold14 traders
W
Will a Taskmaster UK “Champion of Champion of Champions” be aired before 2030?
80%
Manifold
80%
otherManifold15 traders
W
Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
25%
Manifold
25%
otherManifold17 traders
W
Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2028?
60%
Manifold
60%
otherManifold17 traders
W
Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026?
6%
Manifold
6%
otherManifold23 traders
W
Will a humanoid robot set foot on the Moon before the next biological human
57%
Manifold
57%
otherManifold23 traders
Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts "today" between 9am to 9pm CST — Monday, March 23, 2026
99%
Manifold
99%
otherManifold49 traders
W
Will there be self driving taxis in London, UK by the end of 2026?
70%
Manifold
70%
otherManifold43 traders
W
Was Alexei Navalny killed [see description]?
76%
Manifold
76%
otherManifold36 traders
W
Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?
12%
Manifold
12%
otherManifold23 traders
W
Will Stephen Miller leave the White House before 2 Jan 2027?
27%
Manifold
27%
otherManifold23 traders
G
GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?
35%
Manifold
35%
otherManifold23 traders
W
Will I eventually make USACO Camp
23%
Manifold
23%
otherManifold23 traders