W
Will Keir Starmer resign in 2026?
33%
Manifold
33%
otherManifold20 traders
T
The Artemis mission will not take any human being to the moon in 2026
99%
Manifold
99%
otherManifold20 traders
W
Will there be more international travelers to Japan in 2026 than in 2025?
48%
Manifold
48%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will China have a female leader before 2060?
20%
Manifold
20%
otherManifold22 traders
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? — X = 50
98%
Manifold
98%
otherManifold22 traders
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? — X = 65
98%
Manifold
98%
otherManifold22 traders
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? — X = 75
98%
Manifold
98%
otherManifold22 traders
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? — X = 80
98%
Manifold
98%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will Enho be on the banzuke in Juryo for the May 2026 Grand Sumo Tournament (Natsu basho)
99%
Manifold
99%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will I get married by 2027?
34%
Manifold
34%
otherManifold28 traders
W
Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?
26%
Manifold
26%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
20%
Manifold
20%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?
37%
Manifold
37%
otherManifold22 traders
M
My best friend dating his crush by July 2026?
74%
Manifold
74%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will Manifold Markets be insolvent before 2030?
10%
Manifold
10%
otherManifold12 traders
W
Will Pete Hegseth write or say the words "Deus vult" while Secretary of Defence?
24%
Manifold
24%
otherManifold26 traders
W
Will I become a billionaire before 2053?
15%
Manifold
15%
otherManifold26 traders
W
Will the New York Times create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
10%
Manifold
10%
otherManifold26 traders
W
Will I get into MCSP 2026?
57%
Manifold
57%
otherManifold13 traders
W
Will North Korea and South Korea be unified with a formula like 'one country, two systems' by 2030?
11%
Manifold
11%
otherManifold25 traders