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OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,934
Markets
Data refreshed 3 hr ago
1,112 questions
Consensus 2+
W
Will Trump outlive Biden? (natural causes)
76%
Manifold
76%
politicsManifold25 traders
T
Thomas Massie wins Kentucky's 4th Republican primary in 2026?
68%
Manifold
68%
politicsManifold23 traders
W
Will Trump die of cancer?
11%
Manifold
11%
politicsManifold21 traders
I
If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?
61%
Manifold
61%
politicsManifold24 traders
W
Will President Trump be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?
10%
Manifold
10%
politicsManifold77 traders
W
Will the US have a gender non-conforming president by 2033?
3%
Manifold
3%
politicsManifold24 traders
W
Will Trump visit China during his term?
84%
Manifold
84%
politicsManifold24 traders
W
Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?
91%
Manifold
91%
politicsManifold24 traders
W
Will Trump give himself the Medal of Honor while in office?
12%
Manifold
12%
politicsManifold21 traders
W
Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
74%
Manifold
74%
politicsManifold24 traders
W
Will Trump resign prior to the end of his term?
4%
Manifold
4%
politicsManifold20 traders
W
Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the Senate in the 2026 mid-term election
46%
Manifold
46%
politicsManifold24 traders
W
Will Pritzker, Newsome, or any other state governor attempt to have the state police arrest ICE agents by July 2026?
18%
Manifold
18%
politicsManifold24 traders
W
Will "Project Hail Mary" receive more Oscar nominations than "Dune: Part Three"?
31%
Manifold
31%
politicsManifold11 traders
I
If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win? — 0.5-1%
10%
Manifold
10%
politicsManifold15 traders
A
Another Donald Trump assassination attempt disclosed?
55%
Manifold
55%
politicsManifold21 traders
W
Will the president during the 2024-2028 term be impeached by at least one body of congress during his term?
66%
Manifold
66%
politicsManifold23 traders
W
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2026?
88%
Manifold
88%
politicsManifold54 traders
W
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2026?
46%
Manifold
46%
politicsManifold17 traders
W
Will Trump Trumpet?
13%
Manifold
13%
politicsManifold16 traders
←23456→
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