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OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,934
Markets
Data refreshed 2 hr ago
1,170 questions
Consensus 2+
W
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2028?
5%
Manifold
5%
politicsManifold33 traders
G
Graham Platner and James Talarico both win their primaries and general elections?
44%
Manifold
44%
politicsManifold19 traders
W
Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?
17%
Manifold
17%
politicsManifold18 traders
F
Former president Biden dead in 2026?
9%
Manifold
9%
politicsManifold15 traders
W
Will Donald Trump attempt to suspend, delay, or reschedule the 2028 elections?
24%
Manifold
24%
politicsManifold97 traders
W
Will Reform be in government following the next UK general election
39%
Manifold
39%
politicsManifold14 traders
I
If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win? — 1-2%
8%
Manifold
8%
politicsManifold15 traders
I
If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win? — 0-0.5%
66%
Manifold
66%
politicsManifold15 traders
K
Kristi Noem impeached by the house in 2026?
7%
Manifold
7%
politicsManifold22 traders
W
Will JD Vance resign as US Vice President during Trump's second term?
12%
Manifold
12%
politicsManifold22 traders
W
Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?
56%
Manifold
56%
politicsManifold22 traders
J
JD Vance wins 2028 Republican nomination?
42%
Manifold
42%
politicsManifold14 traders
W
Will Trump still be president on January 1, 2029?
77%
Manifold
77%
politicsManifold44 traders
W
What will Trump's favorability be on April 30, 2026? — 47.1% – 50%
4%
Manifold
4%
politicsManifold12 traders
I
If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?
53%
Manifold
53%
politicsManifold15 traders
W
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump Cabinet this year?
67%
Manifold
67%
politicsManifold20 traders
T
Tangible evidence of senior Trump officials trading on insider tariff info before 2030?
72%
Manifold
72%
politicsManifold20 traders
W
Will Trump go a full week without speaking live on camera before the end of 2026?
12%
Manifold
12%
politicsManifold42 traders
W
Will a democrat win the 2028 presidential election?
59%
Manifold
59%
politicsManifold41 traders
W
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?
23%
Manifold
23%
politicsManifold17 traders
←45678→
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