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OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,934
Markets
Data refreshed 5 hr ago
1,112 questions
Consensus 2+
W
Will a democrat win the 2028 presidential election?
59%
Manifold
59%
politicsManifold41 traders
W
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?
23%
Manifold
23%
politicsManifold17 traders
I
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will they end the filibuster by the midterm election?
14%
Manifold
14%
politicsManifold20 traders
W
Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?
71%
Manifold
71%
politicsManifold21 traders
W
Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?
38%
Manifold
38%
politicsManifold21 traders
T
Trump impeached, convicted, and removed within six months of approval below 35%?
21%
Manifold
21%
politicsManifold13 traders
T
The Opportunities Party elected in 2026 New Zealand election?
22%
Manifold
22%
politicsManifold12 traders
I
Israel holds free and fair election in 2026?
74%
Manifold
74%
politicsManifold29 traders
W
Will Joe Biden die before Donald Trump?
69%
Manifold
69%
politicsManifold191 traders
W
Will at least 50% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?
57%
Manifold
57%
politicsManifold170 traders
🇸
🇸🇾 Syria signs Abraham Accords by the end of Trump's term?
21%
Manifold
21%
politicsManifold13 traders
W
Will Trump be regarded as a fascist by most mainstream scholars in 2050?
60%
Manifold
60%
politicsManifold21 traders
W
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act by April 30, 2026?
10%
Manifold
10%
politicsManifold21 traders
S
Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?
48%
Manifold
48%
politicsManifold21 traders
[
[ACX 2026] Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?
14%
Manifold
14%
politicsManifold21 traders
W
Will a Republican win the US Senate special election in Florida in 2026?
85%
Manifold
85%
politicsManifold21 traders
W
Will pro-independence parties win a majority of seats at the 2026 Welsh election?
77%
Manifold
77%
politicsManifold13 traders
W
Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2027?
44%
Manifold
44%
politicsManifold18 traders
W
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2026?
86%
Manifold
86%
politicsManifold19 traders
W
Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?
18%
Manifold
18%
politicsManifold13 traders
←56789→
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