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Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,934
Markets
Data refreshed 3 hr ago
1,170 questions
Consensus 2+
W
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentinian presidential election?
67%
Manifold
67%
politicsManifold20 traders
U
UK has new prime minister in 2026?
52%
Manifold
52%
politicsManifold19 traders
K
Kristi Noem was fired Mar 5. Pam Bondi was fired April 2. Will Trump fire another Cabinet member before May 4,11:59pm?
69%
Manifold
69%
politicsManifold14 traders
M
Marc Andreessen publicly breaks with Trump by mid 2026
6%
Manifold
6%
politicsManifold20 traders
W
Will Donald Trump ever see the inside of a *JAIL* Cell? (Not a *prison* cell)
12%
Manifold
12%
politicsManifold31 traders
W
Will JD Vance be the 48th (next) President?
33%
Manifold
33%
politicsManifold12 traders
W
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be elected U.S. president in 2028?
6%
Manifold
6%
politicsManifold20 traders
I
If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028?
87%
Manifold
87%
politicsManifold20 traders
I
If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?
6%
Manifold
6%
politicsManifold20 traders
W
Will Tucker Carlson run for President between now and the 2036 election (inclusive)?
36%
Manifold
36%
politicsManifold28 traders
W
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) be the Democratic nominee for President OR Vice President before the end of 2032?
40%
Manifold
40%
politicsManifold20 traders
W
Will a Republican be elected president in 2028?
41%
Manifold
41%
politicsManifold20 traders
W
Will the Supreme Court deem unconstitutional the Montana statewide ban on TikTok by 2026 year end?
8%
Manifold
8%
politicsManifold18 traders
I
If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
72%
Manifold
72%
politicsManifold20 traders
W
Will any current National Park lose its National Park designation during the current presidential administration?
15%
Manifold
15%
politicsManifold18 traders
W
Will @realDonaldTrump go to Manifest this year?
89%
Manifold
89%
politicsManifold20 traders
I
If Trump becomes president, will Florida constitutionalize abortion?
38%
Manifold
38%
politicsManifold12 traders
W
Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term?
17%
Manifold
17%
politicsManifold13 traders
C
Court packing during Trump administration?
15%
Manifold
15%
politicsManifold13 traders
W
Will trump ever receive any federal pardon in his lifetime?
58%
Manifold
58%
politicsManifold20 traders
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