OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,266
Markets
Data refreshed 3 hr ago
173 questions
Consensus 2+
W
Will humans land on mars by 2028?
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold37 traders
When will SpaceX land on the moon? — Before 2027
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold33 traders
When will SpaceX land on the moon? — 2028
22%
Manifold
22%
scienceManifold33 traders
W
Will Elon Musk step foot on Mars AND get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?
10%
Manifold
10%
scienceManifold27 traders
W
Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2027?
89%
Manifold
89%
scienceManifold23 traders
W
Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars?
55%
Manifold
55%
scienceManifold36 traders
W
Will Tesla merge with any of xAI, X, SpaceX or Neuralink, before 2027?
32%
Manifold
32%
scienceManifold20 traders
W
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
3%
Manifold
3%
scienceManifold35 traders
W
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?
2%
Manifold
2%
scienceManifold175 traders
W
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
2%
Manifold
2%
scienceManifold104 traders
W
When will SpaceX IPO? — By 2026-10-01
82%
Manifold
82%
scienceManifold41 traders
W
Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?
19%
Manifold
19%
scienceManifold72 traders
W
will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold61 traders
W
Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?
71%
Manifold
71%
scienceManifold26 traders
W
Will climate change decimate humans before 2090?
19%
Manifold
19%
scienceManifold50 traders
W
When will SpaceX IPO? — By 2026-06-15
38%
Manifold
38%
scienceManifold41 traders
When will SpaceX land on the moon? — 2030
13%
Manifold
13%
scienceManifold33 traders
When will SpaceX land on the moon? — 2031
10%
Manifold
10%
scienceManifold33 traders
When will SpaceX land on the moon? — 2027
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold33 traders
W
Will a human walk on Mars before the end of 2045?
59%
Manifold
59%
scienceManifold39 traders
45678
Odds Raven

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