OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,934
Markets
Data refreshed 1 hr ago
180 questions
Consensus 2+
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? — 20
88%
Manifold
88%
scienceManifold95 traders
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? — 13
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold95 traders
W
Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?
2%
Manifold
2%
scienceManifold175 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2026-07-01
4%
Manifold
4%
scienceManifold75 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2026-06-01
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold75 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2027-04-01
79%
Manifold
79%
scienceManifold75 traders
W
Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?
17%
Manifold
17%
scienceManifold72 traders
W
Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?
19%
Manifold
19%
scienceManifold72 traders
W
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?
36%
Manifold
36%
scienceManifold71 traders
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship? — 2026/07/01
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold29 traders
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship? — 2027/01/01
23%
Manifold
23%
scienceManifold29 traders
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship? — 2027/04/01
41%
Manifold
41%
scienceManifold29 traders
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship? — 2027/10/01
73%
Manifold
73%
scienceManifold29 traders
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship? — 2030/01/01
93%
Manifold
93%
scienceManifold29 traders
W
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2030?
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold29 traders
W
will this tweet hold up: Starship will fly to Mars in 24 months [27 Oct, 2026]
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold61 traders
W
Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
92%
Manifold
92%
scienceManifold27 traders
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