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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,266
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 1 hr ago
986 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-OutcomeConsensus 2+
SortTrendingMost SourcesBiggest GapHighest ProbNewest
PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7%
Polymarket
7%
Gemini
10%
Manifold
6%
sports3 sources$9.9M4pp gap
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10%
Polymarket
9%
Gemini
11%
Manifold
10%
sports3 sources$9.8M2pp gap
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
16%
— 0pp
Polymarket
15%
Gemini
18%
Manifold
15%
sports3 sources$9.7M3pp gap
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10%
— 0pp
Polymarket
9%
Gemini
11%
Manifold
10%
sports3 sources$9.6M2pp gap
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3%
— 0pp
Polymarket
2%
Gemini
5%
Manifold
2%
sports3 sources$9.5M3pp gap
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
— 0pp
Polymarket
2%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$9.3M2pp gap
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$9.2M2pp gap
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$8.5M2pp gap
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6%
Polymarket
5%
Gemini
7%
Manifold
7%
sports3 sources$8.4M2pp gap
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$8.0M2pp gap
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
4%
sports3 sources$7.4M4pp gap
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
71%
↑ 8pp
Polymarket
71%
sportsPolymarket$6.5M
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
42%
↑ 0pp
Polymarket
42%
Gemini
45%
Manifold
40%
sports3 sources$6.3M5pp gap
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
4%
sports3 sources$6.1M4pp gap
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$6.1M4pp gap
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
Gemini
4%
sports3 sources$5.7M4pp gap
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$5.2M4pp gap
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
4%
sports3 sources$5.0M4pp gap
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$4.9M4pp gap
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$4.9M4pp gap
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