W
Will Trump visit China during his term?
84%
Manifold
84%
politicsManifold24 traders
W
will portugal win the fifa world cup 2026
10%
Manifold
10%
sportsManifold24 traders
W
Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?
91%
Manifold
91%
politicsManifold24 traders
W
Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
29%
Manifold
29%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will Trump give himself the Medal of Honor while in office?
12%
Manifold
12%
politicsManifold21 traders
W
Will tesla autopilot reach level 5 by the end of this decade?
49%
Manifold
49%
otherManifold59 traders
W
Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of April 2026? — S&P500 ≥ 6100
95%
Manifold
95%
financeManifold16 traders
B
Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]
16%
Manifold
16%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?
42%
Manifold
42%
otherManifold83 traders
W
Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?
22%
Manifold
22%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will the Jones Act be repealed or significantly eased by the end of the next presidency?
58%
Manifold
58%
otherManifold24 traders
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA? — Before 2026-01-01
6%
Manifold
6%
otherManifold24 traders
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA? — Before 2027-01-01
87%
Manifold
87%
otherManifold24 traders
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA? — Before 2028-01-01
92%
Manifold
92%
otherManifold24 traders
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA? — Before 2030-01-01
96%
Manifold
96%
otherManifold24 traders
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA? — Before 2035-01-01
97%
Manifold
97%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?
38%
Manifold
38%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will a human die in space by 2035?
58%
Manifold
58%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
74%
Manifold
74%
politicsManifold24 traders
W
Will Starship flight 12 happen before New Glenn flight 3?
8%
Manifold
8%
otherManifold15 traders