W
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
53%
Manifold
53%
economicsManifold19 traders
W
Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?
31%
Manifold
31%
economicsManifold17 traders
[
[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
25%
Manifold
25%
economicsManifold17 traders
W
Will Russia surpass Japan in GDP per capita (PPP) by 2035?
16%
Manifold
16%
economicsManifold15 traders
U
US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
48%
Manifold
48%
economicsManifold17 traders
W
Will the US lift all sanctions on Iran before 2029?
30%
Manifold
30%
economicsManifold16 traders
W
Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?
33%
Manifold
33%
economicsManifold16 traders
W
Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?
90%
Manifold
90%
economicsManifold16 traders
W
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
43%
Manifold
43%
economicsManifold16 traders
W
Will any year's US GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?
15%
Manifold
15%
economicsManifold15 traders
R
Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026
82%
Manifold
82%
economicsManifold12 traders
W
Will the UK face the "longest recession in G7"?
82%
Manifold
82%
economicsManifold14 traders
W
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
18%
Manifold
18%
economicsManifold169 traders
W
Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
30%
Manifold
30%
economicsManifold18 traders
W
Will US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
23%
Manifold
23%
economicsManifold12 traders
W
Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?
21%
Manifold
21%
economicsManifold11 traders
W
Will the US experience a recession during 2027?
19%
Manifold
19%
economicsManifold11 traders
ECB rate hike in 2026?
86%
Manifold
86%
economicsManifold11 traders
T
This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold48 traders
W
World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)
64%
Manifold
64%
economicsManifold31 traders