Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$21.6M0pp gap
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$14.6M0pp gap
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$14.3M1pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
97%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
98%
Manifold
97%
economics2 sources$14.1M0pp gap
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
29%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
35%
Manifold
24%
economics2 sources$3.0M12pp gap
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
18%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
12%
Manifold
26%
economics2 sources$876K14pp gap
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
4%
economics2 sources$142K4pp gap
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?
92%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
95%
Manifold
89%
economics2 sources$89K6pp gap
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?
6%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
5%
Manifold
7%
economics2 sources$81K2pp gap
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EVENT
Which of NATO members will h
80%
Which of NATO members will h
79%
Which of NATO members will h
78%
economics4 candidates +1 more
9
928Ze6Sutu
EVENT
How many net Fed rate cuts i
26%
How many net Fed rate cuts i
22%
How many net Fed rate cuts i
19%
economics6 candidates +3 more
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EVENT
When will the next US recess
74%
When will the next US recess
66%
When will the next US recess
58%
economics10 candidates +7 more
C
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EVENT
What will
39%
What will
33%
What will
12%
economics7 candidates +4 more
G
Goseu682Ru
EVENT
In what year will the next U
38%
In what year will the next U
21%
In what year will the next U
17%
economics6 candidates +3 more
H
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EVENT
In which decade will China's
34%
In which decade will China's
31%
In which decade will China's
19%
economics4 candidates +1 more
I
Iiihc6Ehg2
EVENT
Which central banks will rai
78%
Which central banks will rai
77%
Which central banks will rai
74%
economics10 candidates +7 more
L
Lpe0Gtd05C
EVENT
UK unemployment rate in Q4 2
46%
UK unemployment rate in Q4 2
27%
UK unemployment rate in Q4 2
14%
economics5 candidates +2 more
N
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EVENT
China economic recession bef
74%
China economic recession bef
28%
China economic recession bef
22%
economics3 candidates
N
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EVENT
What year will we see negati
79%
What year will we see negati
8%
What year will we see negati
8%
economics8 candidates +5 more
U
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EVENT
How many Fed rate cuts in 20
33%
How many Fed rate cuts in 20
27%
How many Fed rate cuts in 20
21%
economics9 candidates +6 more