Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$24.9M0pp gap
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$15.4M0pp gap
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$15.3M0pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
98%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
98%
Manifold
97%
economics2 sources$14.9M1pp gap
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
30%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
37%
Manifold
24%
economics2 sources$3.0M14pp gap
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
17%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
10%
Manifold
26%
economics2 sources$888K15pp gap
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
4%
economics2 sources$143K4pp gap
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?
92%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
95%
Manifold
89%
economics2 sources$90K6pp gap
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?
6%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
5%
Manifold
7%
economics2 sources$83K2pp gap
W
Will Russia surpass Japan in GDP per capita (PPP) by 2035?
16%
Manifold
16%
economicsManifold15 traders
W
Will any year's US GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?
15%
Manifold
15%
economicsManifold15 traders
W
Will the US experience a recession during 2027?
19%
Manifold
19%
economicsManifold11 traders
R
Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026
82%
Manifold
82%
economicsManifold12 traders
W
Will US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
23%
Manifold
23%
economicsManifold12 traders
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — 2023
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — 2024
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — 2025
5%
Manifold
5%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — 2026
17%
Manifold
17%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — >2026
76%
Manifold
76%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
Will US unemployment be 25% or more before 2030?
11%
Manifold
11%
economicsManifold28 traders