Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$21.6M0pp gap
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$14.6M0pp gap
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$14.3M1pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
97%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
98%
Manifold
97%
economics2 sources$14.1M0pp gap
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
29%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
35%
Manifold
24%
economics2 sources$3.0M12pp gap
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
4%
Polymarket
4%
economicsPolymarket$2.4M
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
6%
— 0ppPolymarket
6%
economicsPolymarket$1.3M
US recession by end of 2026?
24%
↓ 5ppPolymarket
24%
economicsPolymarket$1.3M
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
economicsPolymarket$963K
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
18%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
12%
Manifold
26%
economics2 sources$876K14pp gap
Fed rate hike in 2026?
15%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
15%
economicsPolymarket$860K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
31%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
31%
economicsPolymarket$495K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
4%
Polymarket
4%
economicsPolymarket$433K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
economicsPolymarket$406K
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
economicsPolymarket$378K
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
5%
↓ 3ppPolymarket
5%
economicsPolymarket$316K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
economicsPolymarket$204K
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
52%
↓ 8ppPolymarket
52%
economicsPolymarket$166K
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
11%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
11%
economicsPolymarket$157K
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
4%
economics2 sources$142K4pp gap