Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$24.9M0pp gap
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$15.4M0pp gap
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$15.3M0pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
98%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
98%
Manifold
97%
economics2 sources$14.9M0pp gap
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
32%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
39%
Manifold
26%
economics2 sources$3.0M12pp gap
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
economicsPolymarket$2.4M
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
6%
— 0ppPolymarket
6%
economicsPolymarket$1.3M
US recession by end of 2026?
24%
↓ 7ppPolymarket
24%
economicsPolymarket$1.3M
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
economicsPolymarket$966K
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
16%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
9%
Manifold
26%
economics2 sources$892K17pp gap
Fed rate hike in 2026?
14%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
14%
economicsPolymarket$864K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
29%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
29%
economicsPolymarket$495K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
economicsPolymarket$436K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
economicsPolymarket$406K
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
economicsPolymarket$393K
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
4%
↓ 4ppPolymarket
4%
economicsPolymarket$316K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
1%
Polymarket
1%
economicsPolymarket$204K
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
50%
↓ 9ppPolymarket
50%
economicsPolymarket$169K
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
11%
Polymarket
11%
economicsPolymarket$158K
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
4%
economics2 sources$143K4pp gap