FED Decision In April
EVENT
Fed decision in April? — Fed
99%
there
98%
Fed decision in April? — Cut
4%
economics4 candidates +1 more$64.6M+$2.8M/24h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$21.6M0pp gap
How Many FED Rate Cuts In 2026
EVENT
no Fed rate cuts happen in 2
35%
1 Fed rate cut happen in 202
24%
2 Fed rate cuts happen in 20
20%
economics13 candidates +10 more$17.6M+$237K/24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$14.6M0pp gap
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$14.3M1pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
97%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
98%
Manifold
97%
economics2 sources$14.1M0pp gap
FED Decision In June
EVENT
there
88%
Fed decrease interest rates
10%
Fed increase interest rates
2%
economics5 candidates +2 more$6.4M+$207K/24h
FED Decision In July
EVENT
there
80%
Fed decrease interest rates
13%
Fed decrease interest rates
4%
economics5 candidates +2 more$3.4M+$18K/24h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
29%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
35%
Manifold
24%
economics2 sources$3.0M12pp gap
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
4%
Polymarket
4%
economicsPolymarket$2.4M
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
6%
— 0ppPolymarket
6%
economicsPolymarket$1.3M
What Will FED Rate Hit Before 2027
EVENT
Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25
72%
Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0%
34%
Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5%
16%
economics17 candidates +14 more$1.3M+$3K/24h
US recession by end of 2026?
24%
↓ 5ppPolymarket
24%
economicsPolymarket$1.3M
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
economicsPolymarket$963K
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
18%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
12%
Manifold
26%
economics2 sources$876K14pp gap
Fed rate hike in 2026?
15%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
15%
economicsPolymarket$860K
FED Decisions Mar Jun
EVENT
Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the
84%
Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the n
12%
Fed decide differently in th
3%
economics5 candidates +2 more$786K+$58K/24h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
31%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
31%
economicsPolymarket$495K
Bank Of Japan Decision In April
EVENT
Bank of Japan increases inte
64%
No change in Bank of Japan’s
34%
Bank of Japan increases inte
1%
economics4 candidates +1 more$436K+$6K/24h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
4%
Polymarket
4%
economicsPolymarket$433K