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OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,934
Markets
Data refreshed 2 hr ago
61 questions
Consensus 2+
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — 2025
5%
Manifold
5%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — 2026
17%
Manifold
17%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — >2026
76%
Manifold
76%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
Will US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
23%
Manifold
23%
economicsManifold12 traders
W
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
53%
Manifold
53%
economicsManifold19 traders
W
Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?
31%
Manifold
31%
economicsManifold17 traders
W
Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
30%
Manifold
30%
economicsManifold18 traders
[
[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
24%
Manifold
24%
economicsManifold17 traders
T
This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold48 traders
U
US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
48%
Manifold
48%
economicsManifold17 traders
W
Will the US lift all sanctions on Iran before 2029?
30%
Manifold
30%
economicsManifold16 traders
W
Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?
33%
Manifold
33%
economicsManifold16 traders
W
Will unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September 2022 or September 2024?
90%
Manifold
90%
economicsManifold16 traders
W
Will any year's US GDP reach 130% of all previous years by 2035?
15%
Manifold
15%
economicsManifold15 traders
W
Will Russia surpass Japan in GDP per capita (PPP) by 2035?
16%
Manifold
16%
economicsManifold15 traders
W
Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?
36%
Manifold
36%
economicsManifold102 traders
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — 2024
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
Will US unemployment be 25% or more before 2030?
11%
Manifold
11%
economicsManifold28 traders
W
Will the UK face the "longest recession in G7"?
82%
Manifold
82%
economicsManifold14 traders
W
Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
16%
Manifold
16%
economicsManifold52 traders
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