W
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?
77%
Manifold
77%
economicsManifold14 traders
W
Will the World's GDP double in 5 years?
12%
Manifold
12%
economicsManifold48 traders
W
Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026?
91%
Manifold
91%
economicsManifold17 traders
W
Will India surpass China in terms of GDP before 2050?
34%
Manifold
34%
economicsManifold50 traders
W
Will US GDP growth be greater than 10% in 2029?
12%
Manifold
12%
economicsManifold40 traders
U
US recession in 2026?
38%
Manifold
38%
economicsManifold35 traders
W
Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
98%
Manifold
98%
economicsManifold68 traders
W
Will US unemployment be 15% or more before 2030?
15%
Manifold
15%
economicsManifold52 traders
B
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
46%
Manifold
46%
economicsManifold597 traders
W
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
42%
Manifold
42%
economicsManifold47 traders
W
Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?
21%
Manifold
21%
economicsManifold11 traders
W
Will the US experience a recession during 2027?
19%
Manifold
19%
economicsManifold11 traders
W
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
43%
Manifold
43%
economicsManifold19 traders
ECB rate hike in 2026?
86%
Manifold
86%
economicsManifold11 traders
W
Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by Q2 2026?
2%
Manifold
2%
economicsManifold17 traders
W
Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?
65%
Manifold
65%
economicsManifold42 traders
W
Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 20 years?
63%
Manifold
63%
economicsManifold36 traders
U
US recession in 2026?
29%
Manifold
29%
economicsManifold97 traders
W
Will the World's GDP double in 10 years?
44%
Manifold
44%
economicsManifold34 traders
W
Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?
80%
Manifold
80%
economicsManifold31 traders