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Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,266
Markets
Data refreshed 5 hr ago
26 questions
✓ Consensus 2+
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
49%
Polymarket
48%
Manifold
49%
entertainment2 sources$10.9M1pp gap
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
entertainment2 sources$3.6M0pp gap
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
entertainment2 sources$3.5M0pp gap
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
entertainment2 sources$3.4M0pp gap
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$3.3M0pp gap
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
0%
entertainment2 sources$2.5M0pp gap
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
37%
— 0pp
Polymarket
39%
Gemini
42%
Manifold
31%
entertainment3 sources$2.4M11pp gap
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?
2%
— 0pp
Polymarket
3%
Manifold
2%
entertainment2 sources$1.8M1pp gap
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
entertainment2 sources$1.8M0pp gap
Will France win Eurovision 2026?
11%
↑ 0pp
Polymarket
11%
Gemini
15%
Manifold
8%
entertainment3 sources$1.7M7pp gap
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?
1%
— 0pp
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
2%
entertainment2 sources$1.6M1pp gap
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
8%
— 0pp
Polymarket
4%
Gemini
8%
Manifold
13%
geopolitics3 sources$1.5M9pp gap
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
5%
↓ 1pp
Polymarket
6%
Gemini
12%
Manifold
2%
entertainment3 sources$1.5M10pp gap
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?
2%
— 0pp
Polymarket
2%
Manifold
2%
geopolitics2 sources$1.4M1pp gap
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$1.4M0pp gap
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$1.4M0pp gap
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
1%
— 0pp
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$1.3M0pp gap
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$1.3M0pp gap
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
entertainment2 sources$1.3M0pp gap
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
2%
entertainment2 sources$1.3M1pp gap
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