Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
65%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
74%
Manifold
55%
other2 sources$422K20pp gap
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
9%
Manifold
1%
other2 sources$413K8pp gap
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
Gemini
13%
Manifold
3%
other3 sources$377K10pp gap
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?
8%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
Manifold
19%
other2 sources$230K16pp gap
James Norton announced as next James Bond?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Manifold
0%
other2 sources$108K2pp gap
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
Manifold
6%
other2 sources$97K3pp gap
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
5%
Polymarket
10%
Manifold
2%
other2 sources$96K8pp gap
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?
0%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
0%
other2 sources$91K1pp gap
Jack Lowdon announced as next James Bond?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
other2 sources$82K1pp gap
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?
0%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
other2 sources$72K0pp gap
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?
0%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
other2 sources$66K0pp gap
Will Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
10%
Manifold
2%
other2 sources$50K8pp gap
Will David Bailey be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
42%
↓ 6ppPolymarket
44%
Manifold
29%
Gemini
56%
sports3 sources$45K27pp gap
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
56%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
50%
Manifold
61%
politics2 sources$34K11pp gap
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?
11%
— 0ppPolymarket
20%
Manifold
6%
other2 sources$32K15pp gap
Theo James announced as next James Bond?
0%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
other2 sources$20K0pp gap
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
30%
↓ 18ppPolymarket
20%
Manifold
43%
politics2 sources$14K24pp gap
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?
11%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
16%
Manifold
7%
other2 sources$9K8pp gap
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
56%
↑ 20ppPolymarket
51%
Manifold
59%
Gemini
59%
sports3 sources$9K8pp gap
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?
40%
Polymarket
44%
Manifold
36%
other2 sources$7K8pp gap