2
2Ppdyeogld
g4
74%
Nh3
59%
a4
57%
other20 candidates +17 more
2R9Xxwyrukijqnftmjcs
John Ternus
73%
Other
15%
Craig Federighi
6%
other9 candidates +6 more
2
2Rp2Qdptzu
Tesla Robotaxi Dies
17%
Waymo Dies
5%
Uber Dies
4%
other3 candidates
2Rrspurqiu
Do a second rise
89%
Create indentation, fill wit
85%
Use sourdough instead of yea
84%
other127 candidates +124 more
2
2Sqpzc9A89
$200-$300
18%
$500-$600
18%
$400-$500
18%
other9 candidates +6 more
2
2Suieqnndi
AI research completely autom
44%
AI researchers reduced to "g
21%
other2 candidates
2
2Uzchopzao
2029–2030
29%
2028 or earlier
26%
2031–2032
23%
other5 candidates +2 more
2
2Z82Iq6Lo2
Mojtaba Khamenei
50%
Other
25%
Reza Pahlavi
6%
other21 candidates +18 more
2Z9Qdlul2Q
Other
60%
Donald Trump and/or JD Vance
16%
Artificial Intelligence Itse
5%
other14 candidates +11 more
32M8Cer2T0Sgqa5Hqf3S
AI will be at least one of t
79%
It will start from a series
76%
After twenty years after its
67%
other18 candidates +15 more
3Cr5Zx4Nojiny2Beuomh
Never
41%
Other
40%
2030
6%
other9 candidates +6 more
3Fczklmuulnsiygjli0E
Other
40%
Wang Yang
17%
Ding Xuexiang
13%
other14 candidates +11 more
0
02S6T9T0An
Jess Wilson
38%
Jacinta Allan
32%
Other
27%
other4 candidates +1 more
W
Will China have a female leader before 2060?
20%
Manifold
20%
otherManifold22 traders
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? — X = 40
97%
Manifold
97%
otherManifold22 traders
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? — X = 50
98%
Manifold
98%
otherManifold22 traders
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? — X = 75
98%
Manifold
98%
otherManifold22 traders
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? — X = 80
98%
Manifold
98%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will Enho be on the banzuke in Juryo for the May 2026 Grand Sumo Tournament (Natsu basho)
99%
Manifold
99%
otherManifold22 traders
D
Doctor malpractice for not using LLMs by 2028?
8%
Manifold
8%
otherManifold14 traders