W
Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?
24%
Manifold
24%
otherManifold14 traders
W
Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?
6%
Manifold
6%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will Roblox go bankrupt before 2030?
22%
Manifold
22%
otherManifold15 traders
W
Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?
26%
Manifold
26%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
20%
Manifold
20%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?
37%
Manifold
37%
otherManifold22 traders
M
My best friend dating his crush by July 2026?
74%
Manifold
74%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will Poland adopt the euro before 2030?
22%
Manifold
22%
otherManifold22 traders
I
If xAI releases a game before 2027, will it suck?
83%
Manifold
83%
otherManifold22 traders
Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out? — Starliner-1 flies in 2026
13%
Manifold
13%
otherManifold22 traders
U
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? — May 31
95%
Manifold
95%
otherManifold12 traders
W
Will Brent crude close above 100/barrel at the end of the following months? — October 2026
32%
Manifold
32%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will Brent crude close above 100/barrel at the end of the following months? — November 2026
28%
Manifold
28%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will at least 3 F-35s be lost by the US in 2026
47%
Manifold
47%
otherManifold12 traders
T
Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 90% by what year? — EOY 2030
79%
Manifold
79%
otherManifold16 traders
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
41%
Manifold
41%
otherManifold15 traders
W
Will 100 People Bet On This Market?
37%
Manifold
37%
otherManifold13 traders
W
Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?
10%
Manifold
10%
otherManifold16 traders
W
What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026? — <10%
6%
Manifold
6%
otherManifold22 traders
W
What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026? — 10-20%
20%
Manifold
20%
otherManifold22 traders