H
Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?
78%
Manifold
78%
otherManifold20 traders
W
Will Elon Musk ever walk on Mars?
12%
Manifold
12%
otherManifold148 traders
W
Will the WWE have their first openly transgender active wrestler by the end of 2026?
7%
Manifold
7%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will China collapse before 2030
16%
Manifold
16%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X? — 2027
29%
Manifold
29%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X? — 2033
66%
Manifold
66%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X? — 2034
71%
Manifold
71%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X? — 2035
72%
Manifold
72%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X? — 2036
76%
Manifold
76%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X? — 2037
76%
Manifold
76%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X? — 2039
81%
Manifold
81%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X? — 2040
82%
Manifold
82%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will Chittagong Bangladesh be declared the most liveable city in the world by the end of 2026?
1%
Manifold
1%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
29%
Manifold
29%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will tesla autopilot reach level 5 by the end of this decade?
49%
Manifold
49%
otherManifold59 traders
B
Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]
16%
Manifold
16%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?
42%
Manifold
42%
otherManifold83 traders
W
Will Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?
22%
Manifold
22%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will the Jones Act be repealed or significantly eased by the end of the next presidency?
58%
Manifold
58%
otherManifold24 traders
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA? — Before 2026-01-01
6%
Manifold
6%
otherManifold24 traders