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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
66,938
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 31 min ago
27 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-Outcome✓ Consensus 2+
SortTrendingMost SourcesBiggest GapHighest ProbNewest
PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
49%
Polymarket
48%
Manifold
49%
entertainment2 sources$10.9M1pp gap
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
entertainment2 sources$3.5M0pp gap
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
entertainment2 sources$3.4M0pp gap
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
entertainment2 sources$3.4M0pp gap
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$3.3M0pp gap
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$2.5M0pp gap
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
40%
↑ 1pp
Polymarket
40%
Gemini
42%
Manifold
36%
entertainment3 sources$2.3M6pp gap
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?
3%
— 0pp
Polymarket
3%
Manifold
2%
entertainment2 sources$1.8M1pp gap
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$1.7M0pp gap
Will France win Eurovision 2026?
12%
↓ 1pp
Polymarket
10%
Gemini
15%
Manifold
11%
entertainment3 sources$1.7M5pp gap
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?
9%
— 0pp
Polymarket
6%
Gemini
12%
entertainment2 sources$1.6M6pp gap
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
2%
entertainment2 sources$1.5M1pp gap
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
7%
— 0pp
Polymarket
4%
Gemini
8%
Manifold
10%
geopolitics3 sources$1.5M6pp gap
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
6%
— 0pp
Polymarket
6%
Gemini
12%
Manifold
3%
entertainment3 sources$1.4M9pp gap
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?
2%
— 0pp
Polymarket
2%
Manifold
2%
geopolitics2 sources$1.4M0pp gap
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
1%
— 0pp
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$1.3M0pp gap
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$1.3M0pp gap
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?
1%
— 0pp
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$1.3M0pp gap
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$1.3M0pp gap
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
entertainment2 sources$1.3M0pp gap
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