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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,266
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 2 hr ago
263 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-OutcomeConsensus 2+
SortTrendingMost SourcesBiggest GapHighest ProbNewest
PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
W
Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?
61%
Manifold
61%
geopoliticsManifold16 traders
W
Will the Dow hit 50k before the number of American troops in Iran does?
88%
Manifold
88%
geopoliticsManifold14 traders
W
Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043?
59%
Manifold
59%
geopoliticsManifold14 traders
W
Will there be a civil war in the US in the next 20 years?
36%
Manifold
36%
geopoliticsManifold44 traders
U
US military expenditure tops all-time high by 2026?
39%
Manifold
39%
geopoliticsManifold13 traders
W
Will the United States military fully leave Iraq by the end of 2028?
37%
Manifold
37%
geopoliticsManifold14 traders
W
Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?
16%
Manifold
16%
geopoliticsManifold13 traders
W
Will NATO article 5 be instigated before the end of 2026?
16%
Manifold
16%
geopoliticsManifold14 traders
W
Will Venezuela exercise de facto rule over any Guyanese territory before 2027?
3%
Manifold
3%
geopoliticsManifold14 traders
W
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
8%
Manifold
8%
geopoliticsManifold191 traders
W
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?
65%
Manifold
65%
geopoliticsManifold12 traders
W
Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?
20%
Manifold
20%
geopoliticsManifold13 traders
W
Will any country withdraw from NATO by the start of 2032?
42%
Manifold
42%
geopoliticsManifold13 traders
W
Will there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026?
7%
Manifold
7%
geopoliticsManifold12 traders
W
Will Switzerland join NATO before 2030?
9%
Manifold
9%
geopoliticsManifold13 traders
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2027?
57%
Manifold
57%
geopoliticsManifold13 traders
W
Will nuclear propulsion be used in any spacecraft before 2050?
85%
Manifold
85%
geopoliticsManifold13 traders
R
Regime change in Cuba by 2030?
58%
Manifold
58%
geopoliticsManifold144 traders
W
Will Bibi Netanyahu lose power during or in the aftermath after the 2023 Hamas-Israel War
20%
Manifold
20%
geopoliticsManifold13 traders
W
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?
16%
Manifold
16%
geopoliticsManifold137 traders
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