Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
5%
Polymarket
2%
Manifold
13%
geopolitics2 sources$42.9M11pp gap
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
10%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
10%
geopoliticsPolymarket$28.5M
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
3%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
3%
geopoliticsPolymarket$27.0M
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
9%
— 0ppManifold
9%
Polymarket
9%
other2 sources$19.6M1pp gap
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
25%
Polymarket
22%
Manifold
29%
geopolitics2 sources$14.0M7pp gap
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
7%
Polymarket
6%
Manifold
10%
geopolitics2 sources$13.5M4pp gap
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
28%
↑ 1ppManifold
26%
Polymarket
30%
geopolitics2 sources$13.2M4pp gap
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
13%
↓ 3ppGemini
13%
Manifold
11%
Polymarket
16%
other3 sources$9.4M5pp gap
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
39%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
28%
Manifold
51%
geopolitics2 sources$7.3M23pp gap
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
18%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
16%
Manifold
20%
geopolitics2 sources$6.5M4pp gap
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
12%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
12%
geopoliticsPolymarket$5.5M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
4%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
5%
Manifold
3%
geopolitics2 sources$5.2M2pp gap
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
geopoliticsPolymarket$4.0M
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
8%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
8%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.9M
Iran leadership change by April 30?
12%
Polymarket
12%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.7M
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.1M
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
22%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
22%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.8M
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
14%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
14%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.6M
Iran leadership change by December 31?
42%
Polymarket
42%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.5M
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
7%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Gemini
8%
Manifold
10%
geopolitics3 sources$1.5M6pp gap