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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
67,809
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 2 hr ago
174 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-OutcomeConsensus 2+
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PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
U
US military expenditure tops all-time high by 2026?
39%
Manifold
39%
geopoliticsManifold13 traders
W
Will Spain lose any territory before 01/01/2030? (Either land or territorial waters)
14%
Manifold
14%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
W
Will Iran launch wave X of missile/drone strike under "Operation True Promise 4" before date Y? — X=130, Y=April 11th
3%
Manifold
3%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
I
Is Gunko A Spy For The Revolutionary Army?
11%
Manifold
11%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
W
Will the United States refuse to honor an article 5 call by a NATO country by 2029 year end?
14%
Manifold
14%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
W
Will Ukraine still hold Zaporizhzhia city after the war between Ukraine and Russia ends?
82%
Manifold
82%
geopoliticsManifold12 traders
C
Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
28%
Manifold
28%
geopoliticsManifold15 traders
W
Will there be a military coup in the United States before 2029?
10%
Manifold
10%
geopoliticsManifold30 traders
W
Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?
91%
Manifold
91%
geopoliticsManifold115 traders
P
Public coup attempt against a South American government?
14%
Manifold
14%
geopoliticsManifold12 traders
W
Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070?
50%
Manifold
50%
geopoliticsManifold33 traders
W
Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?
11%
Manifold
11%
geopoliticsManifold127 traders
W
Will the US and China be at war by July 4th?
5%
Manifold
5%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
W
Will Israel fully annex the west bank by 2045?
24%
Manifold
24%
geopoliticsManifold18 traders
R
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War
12%
Manifold
12%
geopoliticsManifold36 traders
W
When Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro? — before August 2026 (ET)
37%
Manifold
37%
geopoliticsManifold32 traders
W
When Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro? — before September 2026 (ET)
45%
Manifold
45%
geopoliticsManifold32 traders
W
When Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro? — before December 28 2027 (ET)
73%
Manifold
73%
geopoliticsManifold32 traders
W
Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
8%
Manifold
8%
geopoliticsManifold23 traders
W
Will China conduct a military exercise around Taiwan before May 1, 2026?
44%
Manifold
44%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
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