OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,266
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 46 min ago
263 questions
W
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
60%
Manifold
60%
geopoliticsManifold18 traders
W
Will the UK government pass legislation introducing conscription for military service before 2028?
9%
Manifold
9%
geopoliticsManifold18 traders
W
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
13%
Manifold
13%
geopoliticsManifold12 traders
W
Will Ukraine still hold Zaporizhzhia city after the war between Ukraine and Russia ends?
82%
Manifold
82%
geopoliticsManifold12 traders
W
Will Spain lose any territory before 01/01/2030? (Either land or territorial waters)
14%
Manifold
14%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
W
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
21%
Manifold
21%
geopoliticsManifold46 traders
C
Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
28%
Manifold
28%
geopoliticsManifold15 traders
W
Will Iran launch wave X of missile/drone strike under "Operation True Promise 4" before date Y? — X=130, Y=April 11th
3%
Manifold
3%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
I
If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?
62%
Manifold
62%
geopoliticsManifold32 traders
I
Is Gunko A Spy For The Revolutionary Army?
11%
Manifold
11%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
W
Will the United States refuse to honor an article 5 call by a NATO country by 2029 year end?
14%
Manifold
14%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
W
Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?
35%
Manifold
35%
geopoliticsManifold93 traders
W
Will there be a military coup in the United States before 2029?
10%
Manifold
10%
geopoliticsManifold30 traders
W
Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?
91%
Manifold
91%
geopoliticsManifold115 traders
W
Will Russia join NATO BY 2040?
6%
Manifold
6%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
P
Public coup attempt against a South American government?
14%
Manifold
14%
geopoliticsManifold12 traders
2
2030: Will the World War III be named to start in 2023?
7%
Manifold
7%
geopoliticsManifold24 traders
W
Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?
11%
Manifold
11%
geopoliticsManifold127 traders
I
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
12%
Manifold
12%
geopoliticsManifold54 traders
W
Will the US and China be at war by July 4th?
5%
Manifold
5%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
34567
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