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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,266
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 2 hr ago
319 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-OutcomeConsensus 2+
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PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
C
Communist regime collapse in Cuba before January 1, 2027?
28%
Manifold
28%
geopoliticsManifold60 traders
W
Will a country leave NATO this year?
10%
Manifold
10%
geopoliticsManifold19 traders
W
Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?
16%
Manifold
16%
geopoliticsManifold18 traders
W
Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?
45%
Manifold
45%
geopoliticsManifold26 traders
U
US x Iran ceasefire by...? — April 15
99%
Manifold
99%
geopoliticsManifold51 traders
U
US x Iran ceasefire by...? — April 31
99%
Manifold
99%
geopoliticsManifold51 traders
T
The US takes Military Action against Cuba by end of May 2026
26%
Manifold
26%
geopoliticsManifold29 traders
W
Will Ukraine suffer nuclear power plant meltdowns during the Russia war?
10%
Manifold
10%
geopoliticsManifold29 traders
W
Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.
16%
Manifold
16%
geopoliticsManifold18 traders
W
Will Russia conduct military operations in any another country against ISIS-K before the end of 2026?
17%
Manifold
17%
geopoliticsManifold30 traders
W
Will the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026?
7%
Manifold
7%
geopoliticsManifold26 traders
W
Will any new Nuclear Power Plants start producing power in America by the end of 2029?
19%
Manifold
19%
geopoliticsManifold29 traders
W
Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
63%
Manifold
63%
geopoliticsManifold29 traders
W
Will the U.S. military be defeated by a rogue AI before 2035?
9%
Manifold
9%
geopoliticsManifold29 traders
N
Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes? — 0
65%
Manifold
65%
geopoliticsManifold29 traders
N
Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes? — 2
9%
Manifold
9%
geopoliticsManifold29 traders
N
Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes? — 3-4
6%
Manifold
6%
geopoliticsManifold29 traders
W
Will any active city of at least 100,000 people be destroyed by a nuclear bomb before 2035?
18%
Manifold
18%
geopoliticsManifold15 traders
W
Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses in any month of 2026?
64%
Manifold
64%
geopoliticsManifold27 traders
W
Will North Korea join the war by the end of april
15%
Manifold
15%
geopoliticsManifold20 traders
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