Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$25.0M0pp gap
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
13%
Polymarket
18%
Manifold
9%
politics2 sources$22.6M9pp gap
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$15.6M0pp gap
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
economics2 sources$15.5M0pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
98%
— 0ppPolymarket
98%
Manifold
97%
economics2 sources$15.1M0pp gap
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
16%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
15%
Gemini
19%
Manifold
15%
sports3 sources$14.6M4pp gap
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$11.0M2pp gap
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
31%
Polymarket
30%
Manifold
32%
geopolitics2 sources$7.5M3pp gap
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
42%
Polymarket
42%
Gemini
45%
Manifold
40%
sports3 sources$6.3M5pp gap
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
36%
Polymarket
36%
Manifold
35%
politics2 sources$2.9M2pp gap
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
8%
politics2 sources$2.8M8pp gap
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
69%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
63%
Manifold
74%
other2 sources$1.3M11pp gap
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
9%
↑ 1ppManifold
18%
Polymarket
4%
other2 sources$1.0M13pp gap
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
6%
↑ 3ppManifold
2%
Polymarket
19%
politics2 sources$967K17pp gap
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
2%
Manifold
2%
geopolitics2 sources$777K0pp gap
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
finance2 sources$701K0pp gap
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
24%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
16%
Manifold
33%
other2 sources$663K17pp gap
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
21%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
25%
Manifold
18%
sports2 sources$634K7pp gap
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
94%
— 0ppPolymarket
97%
Manifold
96%
Gemini
86%
other3 sources$599K11pp gap
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
38%
↓ 0ppManifold
38%
Polymarket
38%
other2 sources$580K1pp gap