By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve? — By end of 2028
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold17 traders
W
Will someone play Doom on Mars by the end of 2050?
39%
Manifold
39%
scienceManifold18 traders
W
Will a child of Elon Musk be CEO of Tesla, X, xAI, or SpaceX by the end of 2035?
21%
Manifold
21%
scienceManifold14 traders
W
Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2030?
57%
Manifold
57%
scienceManifold13 traders
W
Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?
14%
Manifold
14%
scienceManifold14 traders
W
Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?
69%
Manifold
69%
scienceManifold13 traders
W
will 2026 bring a offical breakthrough in the Kurt Cobain death investigation?
12%
Manifold
12%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will China successfully complete a Mars Sample Return mission before the USA and Europe do?
56%
Manifold
56%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will SpaceX reach a valuation of $5 Trillion by 2030?
40%
Manifold
40%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will SpaceX combine with Tesla in 2026?
21%
Manifold
21%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2027?
4%
Manifold
4%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will global carbon dioxide levels decrease in any year before 2030
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold12 traders
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? — 14
25%
Manifold
25%
scienceManifold95 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2026-06-01
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold75 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2027-04-01
79%
Manifold
79%
scienceManifold75 traders
W
Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?
23%
Manifold
23%
scienceManifold125 traders
W
When will SpaceX IPO? — By 2040-01-01
92%
Manifold
92%
scienceManifold41 traders
W
Will a human walk on Mars before the end of 2045?
59%
Manifold
59%
scienceManifold39 traders
When will SpaceX land on the moon? — >= 2032
31%
Manifold
31%
scienceManifold33 traders
W
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2040?
18%
Manifold
18%
scienceManifold32 traders