Human moon landing in 2026?
3%
↓ 0ppPolymarket
4%
Manifold
2%
science2 sources$1.9M3pp gap
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
90%
↑ 1ppManifold
77%
Polymarket
96%
science2 sources$483K19pp gap
Which team wins 2026 Stanley Cup — Carolina Hurricanes
14%
Manifold
14%
Gemini
15%
sports2 sources1pp gap
By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve? — By end of 2025
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold17 traders
By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve? — By end of 2030
13%
Manifold
13%
scienceManifold17 traders
By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve? — By end of 2050
36%
Manifold
36%
scienceManifold17 traders
By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve? — By end of 2028
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold17 traders
W
Will someone play Doom on Mars by the end of 2050?
39%
Manifold
39%
scienceManifold18 traders
W
Will a child of Elon Musk be CEO of Tesla, X, xAI, or SpaceX by the end of 2035?
21%
Manifold
21%
scienceManifold14 traders
W
Will NASA land a person on the moon before 2030?
57%
Manifold
57%
scienceManifold13 traders
W
Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?
14%
Manifold
14%
scienceManifold14 traders
W
Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?
69%
Manifold
69%
scienceManifold13 traders
W
will 2026 bring a offical breakthrough in the Kurt Cobain death investigation?
12%
Manifold
12%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will China successfully complete a Mars Sample Return mission before the USA and Europe do?
56%
Manifold
56%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will SpaceX reach a valuation of $5 Trillion by 2030?
40%
Manifold
40%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will SpaceX combine with Tesla in 2026?
21%
Manifold
21%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2027?
4%
Manifold
4%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will global carbon dioxide levels decrease in any year before 2030
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold12 traders
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? — 14
25%
Manifold
25%
scienceManifold95 traders
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time? — Before 2026-06-01
1%
Manifold
1%
scienceManifold75 traders