Human moon landing in 2026?
3%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
4%
Manifold
2%
science2 sources$1.9M3pp gap
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
sciencePolymarket$538K
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
90%
Manifold
81%
Polymarket
95%
science2 sources$482K14pp gap
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
sciencePolymarket$396K
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
43%
Polymarket
43%
sciencePolymarket$330K
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
34%
Polymarket
34%
sciencePolymarket$316K
New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
17%
Polymarket
17%
sciencePolymarket$232K
New pandemic in 2026?
12%
Polymarket
12%
sciencePolymarket$208K
Natural Disaster in 2026?
28%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
28%
sciencePolymarket$198K
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
10%
sciencePolymarket$177K
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
6%
Polymarket
6%
sciencePolymarket$149K
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
62%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
62%
sciencePolymarket$130K
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
13%
Polymarket
13%
sciencePolymarket$126K
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?
2%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
2%
sciencePolymarket$112K
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
70%
Polymarket
70%
sciencePolymarket$106K
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
39%
Polymarket
39%
sciencePolymarket$106K
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?
10%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
10%
sciencePolymarket$54K
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?
94%
Polymarket
94%
sciencePolymarket$52K
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?
90%
Polymarket
90%
sciencePolymarket$45K
Megaquake by June 30?
22%
Polymarket
22%
sciencePolymarket$42K