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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
66,938
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 18 min ago
341 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-OutcomeConsensus 2+
SortTrendingMost SourcesBiggest GapHighest ProbNewest
PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$15.5M3pp gap
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$13.4M3pp gap
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$13.0M3pp gap
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$12.9M3pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
17%
— 0pp
Gemini
20%
Manifold
16%
Polymarket
17%
politics3 sources$12.8M4pp gap
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3%
Polymarket
2%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
3%
sports3 sources$12.3M2pp gap
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$12.1M3pp gap
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$11.8M2pp gap
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
4%
— 0pp
Polymarket
3%
Gemini
6%
Manifold
4%
sports3 sources$11.5M3pp gap
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$11.3M3pp gap
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
Polymarket
2%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$11.1M3pp gap
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
17%
— 0pp
Polymarket
15%
Gemini
20%
Manifold
17%
sports3 sources$10.8M5pp gap
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$10.3M3pp gap
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
21%
Gemini
23%
Manifold
20%
Polymarket
19%
politics3 sources$10.0M4pp gap
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$9.8M3pp gap
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
8%
Polymarket
7%
Gemini
11%
Manifold
6%
sports3 sources$9.8M5pp gap
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10%
— 0pp
Polymarket
8%
Gemini
12%
Manifold
10%
sports3 sources$9.7M3pp gap
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
13%
Gemini
15%
Manifold
13%
Polymarket
11%
sports3 sources$9.6M4pp gap
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
16%
— 0pp
Polymarket
15%
Gemini
20%
Manifold
15%
sports3 sources$9.6M5pp gap
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10%
Polymarket
9%
Gemini
12%
Manifold
10%
sports3 sources$9.4M3pp gap
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