Human moon landing in 2026?
2%
Polymarket
3%
Manifold
1%
ai2 sources$1.9M2pp gap
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
100%
↑ 75ppManifold
99%
Polymarket
100%
other2 sources$800K0pp gap
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
7%
— 0ppPolymarket
9%
Manifold
3%
ai2 sources$631K5pp gap
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
85%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
82%
Manifold
91%
ai2 sources$460K9pp gap
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
23%
↓ 1ppManifold
14%
Polymarket
27%
ai2 sources$453K13pp gap
Will Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?
0%
↓ 6ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
ai2 sources$101K0pp gap
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?
0%
↓ 3ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
ai2 sources$56K0pp gap
GPT-6 released in 2026?
72%
Manifold
77%
Gemini
70%
other2 sources$35K7pp gap