Human moon landing in 2026?
2%
Polymarket
3%
Manifold
1%
ai2 sources$1.9M2pp gap
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Manifold
1%
ai2 sources$1.1M1pp gap
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
72%
↓ 5ppPolymarket
68%
Manifold
81%
ai2 sources$825K13pp gap
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
100%
↑ 75ppManifold
99%
Polymarket
100%
other2 sources$800K1pp gap
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
8%
— 0ppPolymarket
9%
Manifold
5%
ai2 sources$631K4pp gap
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
17%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
20%
Manifold
12%
ai2 sources$505K8pp gap
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
ai2 sources$494K0pp gap
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
85%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
82%
Manifold
91%
ai2 sources$460K9pp gap
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
74%
↓ 1ppManifold
77%
Polymarket
73%
ai2 sources$453K4pp gap
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
0%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
ai2 sources$366K0pp gap
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
8%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
8%
Manifold
5%
ai2 sources$331K3pp gap
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
ai2 sources$128K0pp gap
Will Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?
0%
↓ 6ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
ai2 sources$101K0pp gap
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?
0%
↓ 3ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
ai2 sources$56K0pp gap
GPT-6 released in 2026?
82%
Manifold
68%
Gemini
88%
other2 sources$5K20pp gap