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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,266
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 1 hr ago
74 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-OutcomeConsensus 2+
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PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
W
Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?
36%
Manifold
36%
economicsManifold102 traders
W
When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States) — 2024
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold20 traders
W
Will US unemployment be 25% or more before 2030?
11%
Manifold
11%
economicsManifold28 traders
U
Unemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026?
70%
Manifold
70%
economicsManifold25 traders
W
What's the risk-free interest rate until 2028 on Manifold Markets?
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold25 traders
W
Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?
42%
Manifold
42%
economicsManifold25 traders
W
Will US unemployment be 10% or more before 2030?
26%
Manifold
26%
economicsManifold24 traders
W
Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
16%
Manifold
16%
economicsManifold52 traders
W
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?
77%
Manifold
77%
economicsManifold14 traders
W
Will the World's GDP double in 5 years?
12%
Manifold
12%
economicsManifold48 traders
W
Will US unemployment exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026?
91%
Manifold
91%
economicsManifold17 traders
W
Will India surpass China in terms of GDP before 2050?
34%
Manifold
34%
economicsManifold50 traders
W
Will US GDP growth be greater than 10% in 2029?
12%
Manifold
12%
economicsManifold40 traders
U
US recession in 2026?
38%
Manifold
38%
economicsManifold35 traders
W
Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
98%
Manifold
98%
economicsManifold68 traders
W
Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?
80%
Manifold
80%
economicsManifold31 traders
W
Will US unemployment be 15% or more before 2030?
15%
Manifold
15%
economicsManifold52 traders
B
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
46%
Manifold
46%
economicsManifold597 traders
W
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
42%
Manifold
42%
economicsManifold47 traders
W
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
43%
Manifold
43%
economicsManifold19 traders
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