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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
66,938
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 2 hr ago
27 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-Outcome✓ Consensus 2+
SortTrendingMost SourcesBiggest GapHighest ProbNewest
PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$1.2M1pp gap
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?
3%
— 0pp
Polymarket
3%
Manifold
2%
entertainment2 sources$1.2M1pp gap
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?
3%
— 0pp
Polymarket
3%
Manifold
3%
entertainment2 sources$1.2M0pp gap
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
11%
— 0pp
Polymarket
10%
Gemini
15%
Manifold
8%
entertainment3 sources$1.2M7pp gap
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?
2%
— 0pp
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
3%
entertainment2 sources$996K2pp gap
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
49%
↑ 5pp
Polymarket
68%
Manifold
31%
ai2 sources$620K37pp gap
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
entertainment2 sources$592K0pp gap
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