W
Will a nuclear detonation happen in space by the end of 2026?
3%
Manifold
3%
geopoliticsManifold39 traders
W
Will Israel fully annex the west bank by 2045?
24%
Manifold
24%
geopoliticsManifold18 traders
R
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War
12%
Manifold
12%
geopoliticsManifold36 traders
W
Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026?
11%
Manifold
11%
geopoliticsManifold32 traders
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
4%
Manifold
4%
geopoliticsManifold16 traders
W
When Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro? — before August 2026 (ET)
37%
Manifold
37%
geopoliticsManifold32 traders
W
When Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro? — before September 2026 (ET)
45%
Manifold
45%
geopoliticsManifold32 traders
W
When Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro? — before December 28 2027 (ET)
73%
Manifold
73%
geopoliticsManifold32 traders
W
Will China conduct a military exercise around Taiwan before May 1, 2026?
44%
Manifold
44%
geopoliticsManifold11 traders
W
Will USA troops set foot in panama with aggressive intention by the end of 2026?
12%
Manifold
12%
geopoliticsManifold23 traders
W
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
40%
Manifold
40%
geopoliticsManifold29 traders
W
Will Pete Hegseth be the Secretary of War on 12/31/2026?
71%
Manifold
71%
geopoliticsManifold20 traders
W
Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?
32%
Manifold
32%
geopoliticsManifold30 traders
U
US ground invasion of Iran before the end of 2026?
39%
Manifold
39%
geopoliticsManifold27 traders
N
Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes? — 1
17%
Manifold
17%
geopoliticsManifold29 traders
U
US x Iran ceasefire by...? — June 31
99%
Manifold
99%
geopoliticsManifold51 traders
N
Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes? — 5-6
3%
Manifold
3%
geopoliticsManifold29 traders
C
Communist regime collapse in Cuba before January 1, 2027?
28%
Manifold
28%
geopoliticsManifold60 traders
W
Will a country leave NATO this year?
10%
Manifold
10%
geopoliticsManifold19 traders
W
Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?
16%
Manifold
16%
geopoliticsManifold18 traders