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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,266
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 1 hr ago
173 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-OutcomeConsensus 2+
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PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
W
Will an organization besides SpaceX successfully develop a resuable orbital rocket booster launch system by end of 2027?
98%
Manifold
98%
scienceManifold21 traders
W
Will there be any successful manned mission to Mars launched by any country/private company by 2040 ?
40%
Manifold
40%
scienceManifold21 traders
W
Will any human successfully land on Mars by 2030?
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold21 traders
W
Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times?
98%
Manifold
98%
scienceManifold20 traders
W
Will someone play Doom on Mars by the end of 2050?
39%
Manifold
39%
scienceManifold18 traders
W
Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?
80%
Manifold
80%
scienceManifold17 traders
H
Has NASA's Perseverance rover found traces of extraterrestrial life ?
29%
Manifold
29%
scienceManifold51 traders
W
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
9%
Manifold
9%
scienceManifold118 traders
D
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)
37%
Manifold
37%
scienceManifold45 traders
W
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
39%
Manifold
39%
scienceManifold15 traders
W
Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2026?
30%
Manifold
30%
scienceManifold15 traders
W
Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
51%
Manifold
51%
scienceManifold11 traders
W
Will a child of Elon Musk be CEO of Tesla, X, xAI, or SpaceX by the end of 2035?
21%
Manifold
21%
scienceManifold14 traders
W
Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?
14%
Manifold
14%
scienceManifold14 traders
W
Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?
69%
Manifold
69%
scienceManifold13 traders
W
Will climate change decimate humans before 2050?
10%
Manifold
10%
scienceManifold155 traders
S
Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Moon orbit by 2035
63%
Manifold
63%
scienceManifold13 traders
W
will 2026 bring a offical breakthrough in the Kurt Cobain death investigation?
12%
Manifold
12%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will SpaceX's HLS uncrewed demo launch before 2027?
4%
Manifold
4%
scienceManifold12 traders
W
Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 800 times?
97%
Manifold
97%
scienceManifold12 traders
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