Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
7%
— 0ppManifold
4%
Polymarket
7%
other2 sources$23.4M3pp gap
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
13%
Manifold
4%
Polymarket
18%
geopolitics2 sources$17.6M13pp gap
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
3%
sports3 sources$10.3M3pp gap
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
2%
sports3 sources$10.2M2pp gap
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$9.9M2pp gap
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
51%
sports3 sources$9.8M51pp gap
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Gemini
1%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$9.7M1pp gap
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
2%
sports3 sources$9.7M1pp gap
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$9.2M3pp gap
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
1%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$8.9M1pp gap
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
1%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$8.8M1pp gap
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
4%
sports3 sources$8.7M3pp gap
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$8.6M2pp gap
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
sports2 sources$7.6M2pp gap
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
2%
sports3 sources$7.0M2pp gap
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
1%
sports3 sources$6.8M1pp gap
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
2%
sports3 sources$6.5M2pp gap
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
1%
Polymarket
2%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$3.8M2pp gap
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
68%
↓ 1ppManifold
97%
Gemini
96%
Polymarket
38%
sports3 sources$3.1M59pp gap
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
3%
Manifold
0%
Polymarket
5%
Gemini
2%
sports3 sources$2.9M5pp gap