OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
67,809
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 1 hr ago
254 questions
9
9Ll96Lgch5
It will be released by Janua
96%
It will be released by May 2
86%
It is GPT 5.5 (including any
82%
ai9 candidates +6 more
9
9Qqjbfbd2Ide32Dmq80U
Natural Disease
67%
I will live to see 2100.
51%
Aging
35%
ai2 candidates
A
Aiptlcypll
Anthropic
42%
OpenAI
28%
Google
24%
ai4 candidates +1 more
A
Alzunpqrc0
After 2035
69%
Only after superintelligence
49%
2031-2035
45%
ai6 candidates +3 more
A
Amft3C6And73Talraulx
Runs entirely on silicon-bas
93%
existence of the AGI and the
88%
Developed by a US company
86%
ai23 candidates +20 more
A
Apnlcl9A26
9h - 10h
13%
10h - 11h
12%
8h30 - 9h
11%
ai20 candidates +17 more
A
Auauszu0Nt
Accident/other
49%
State actor
39%
Non-state actor
13%
ai3 candidates
A
Aziy8Pupqd
uses some non-AdamW optimize
91%
Some image input (multimodal
87%
>= 50% on TerminalBench (htt
84%
ai18 candidates +15 more
Bzbehcmumrf24Gbg4Uxt
Q3 2026
62%
Q4 2026
23%
Other
13%
ai9 candidates +6 more
C
C9Lhccoey2
xAI
81%
Anthropic
14%
OpenAI
5%
ai3 candidates
C
Cagype90Yp
>=$25B
95%
>=$40B
83%
>=$50B
67%
ai8 candidates +5 more
C
Cgrohxybutrerhnrxki5
Gunplay
98%
Bond will be a man
98%
Bond drives a car
97%
ai2 candidates
C
Clgqde6Qpq
Anthropic
58%
Google DeepMind
20%
OpenAI
16%
ai2 candidates
C
Cn9Cchoca2
Other
38%
600B - 700B
13%
800B - 900B
10%
ai11 candidates +8 more
C
Cospico8Nc
Other
38%
30B - 35B
11%
35B - 40B
10%
ai11 candidates +8 more
C
Cussr0Uull
Anthropic
36%
OpenAI
31%
Google DeepMind
22%
ai2 candidates
Czyh3Kp388Egj5Dvyhxr
It won't be
51%
Giving all LLMs access to th
18%
Bigger model trained on more
9%
ai10 candidates +7 more
D
D2Z28882Zt
ChatGPT
53%
[No polling data available]
29%
Grok
7%
ai4 candidates +1 more
E4Ekhsg3Vcrjvd71I5Sl
Other
51%
Grimes
13%
David Chalmers
6%
ai19 candidates +16 more
E
Egcnhe6Qgc
Palantir
17%
Other
15%
OpenAI
15%
ai11 candidates +8 more
1234
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