Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
4%
Polymarket
3%
Manifold
6%
ai2 sources$972K3pp gap
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
Manifold
2%
ai2 sources$882K1pp gap
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
49%
↑ 5ppPolymarket
68%
Manifold
31%
ai2 sources$620K37pp gap
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
65%
— 0ppPolymarket
65%
Manifold
64%
ai2 sources$594K1pp gap
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
7%
↓ 17ppPolymarket
10%
Manifold
5%
ai2 sources$586K4pp gap
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
31%
↓ 5ppManifold
27%
Polymarket
36%
ai2 sources$421K10pp gap
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
22%
Polymarket
20%
Manifold
24%
ai2 sources$327K4pp gap
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
ai2 sources$270K0pp gap
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
8%
Polymarket
10%
Manifold
7%
ai2 sources$136K2pp gap
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
1%
ai2 sources$132K0pp gap
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 10-20%
10%
Manifold
10%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 20-30%
16%
Manifold
16%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 30-40%
20%
Manifold
20%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 50-60%
12%
Manifold
12%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 60-70%
7%
Manifold
7%
aiManifold17 traders
W
will Anthropic have another leak in April 2026?
46%
Manifold
46%
aiManifold13 traders
B
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2027
39%
Manifold
39%
aiManifold16 traders
B
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2028
57%
Manifold
57%
aiManifold16 traders
B
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2029
66%
Manifold
66%
aiManifold16 traders
W
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — June 2026 or earlier
5%
Manifold
5%
aiManifold16 traders